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Will my rates go up? Quantifying insurance premium hikes after a claim (by claim type and state)

Comprehensive guide • US car insurance • Cost Impact of Claims on Premiums & Rate Comparisons

If you’ve been in a crash or are deciding whether to file a claim, the question that haunts every driver is: “Will my insurance rates go up — and by how much?” This guide walks through the data, state-by-state differences, claim-type differences (at-fault, not-at-fault, glass/comprehensive, bodily injury/total loss), insurer behavior, real-dollar examples, and practical strategies to reduce long-term cost. You’ll also find internal resources to help you dig deeper and calculators you can use to estimate your own post-claim ownership cost.

Key takeaways (TL;DR)

  • A single at-fault auto claim typically increases your premium substantially — most studies place the national average increase in the 35–45% range. (insurancequotes.com)
  • Not-at-fault claims often raise rates much less (and sometimes not at all), but some insurers and states do surcharge for not-at-fault incidents — average reported increases around ~10% in some studies. (caranddriver.com)
  • State rules and market conditions create wide variation: some states see average post-claim increases >60%, others ~20–30%. Location matters as much as fault. (insurancequotes.com)
  • Most insurers penalize you for 3–5 years after an accident; some data sources and databases (CLUE) can keep claim records visible for up to 7 years. (insurify.com)

1. How insurers think about claims: the underwriting logic

Insurance companies price policies on two things:

  • Expected future losses for a driver (the insurer’s risk), and
  • How much the insurer already paid (claims history and severity).

When you file a claim that requires the insurer to pay (collision, bodily injury, property damage, theft), the insurer updates its model of your risk. For at-fault incidents, the model usually increases the expected future loss for that driver, producing a premium increase (sometimes called a surcharge or restoration premium). For not-at-fault incidents, whether your premium rises depends on insurer policy and state rules — some insurers penalize anyway because they see a history of claims (even if not your fault), while other carriers explicitly exclude non-fault events. (compare.com)

What drives the size of the increase?

  • Claim type and severity (bodily injury and high-dollar claims >$2,000 raise rates more). (insurance-forums.com)
  • Fault (at-fault > not-at-fault). (caranddriver.com)
  • Your prior record (clean drivers get smaller penalties than drivers with previous claims/tickets). (thezebra.com)
  • State regulation (some states limit surcharge practices or how insurers can rate). (insurancequotes.com)
  • The insurer’s own scoring model — some companies raise rates more aggressively than others. (autoinsurance.com)

2. National averages and what the studies say

Below are the most-cited, recent headline metrics from industry studies and price-quote analyses:

  • Average increase after an at-fault accident: ~38–43% (studies differ: InsuranceQuotes found a national average ~38% for a $2,000+ claim; Bankrate reported ~43%; AutoInsurance.com reported ~42%). These figures are for full-coverage drivers and vary by baseline premium. (insurancequotes.com)

  • Average dollar increase: analysts often translate those percentages into hundreds of dollars per year. For example, AutoInsurance.com found an average dollar increase of about $872/year after an at-fault accident in their dataset. (autoinsurance.com)

  • Multiple claims multiply the pain: filing two claims within a short period can produce much steeper increases (some studies show a second claim can push increases toward or above 90% depending on insurer/state). (insurance-forums.com)

  • Not-at-fault claims: many drivers expect no penalty — and sometimes that’s true — but consumer-group analyses found not-at-fault surcharges of up to ~10% (and higher in a few cases) at several major insurers in certain cities/states. Whether you’re charged depends on insurer policy and state law. (cbsnews.com)

These headline numbers give a realistic planning range: expect a substantial percentage increase for an at-fault claim, a modest risk of increase for some not-at-fault claims, and higher surcharges for bodily injury, total loss, or multi-claim histories.

3. Claim types: expected premium impact (ranges and examples)

The following table summarizes typical ranges of premium increases by claim type and offers a simple dollar example for a baseline annual full-coverage premium of $1,800 (approx. recent U.S. full-coverage averages can vary by study; adjust to your personal premium).

Claim type Typical % increase range (national) Example: annual premium change on $1,800 base
At-fault collision (single, minor) 25%–60% +$450 → new premium ~$2,250. (Common studies: 35–45% average.) (bankrate.com)
At-fault with bodily injury / high payout 40%–100%+ +$720 → new premium ~$2,520 (or much higher if multi-claim). (insurance-forums.com)
Not-at-fault crash (filed claim) 0%–20% (some insurers/states) +$0–$360 depending on insurer/state; many drivers see little/no increase. (caranddriver.com)
Comprehensive (glass, theft, vandalism) 0%–25% +$0–$450; glass-only claims often produce minimal rate impact at many insurers (some waive surcharge). (autoinsurance.com)
Total loss / severe injury 50%–150%+ +$900+ depending on severity and state — can trigger SR-22 or nonstandard pricing. (thezebra.com)
Multiple claims in 12–36 months 60%–200%+ Compounding increases; two or more claims can push premiums into nonstandard market. (insurance-forums.com)

Notes:

  • These are ranges based on public analyses and price-quote studies; your carrier’s model may put you outside these bounds. (autoinsurance.com)
  • Glass claims (windshield) are often treated more leniently, and many carriers and states encourage glass repairs with minimal or no surcharge. Check your policy and local laws before filing small glass claims. (compare.com)

4. State-by-state: why location changes everything

State insurance laws, legal environment (tort vs. no-fault), average claim severity, medical cost growth, and even weather/crime influence how much insurers will raise premiums after a claim. Studies that compared state averages found dramatic differences.

Representative findings:

  • InsuranceQuotes’ state study showed some states with very large average post-claim hikes (e.g., California, New Hampshire, Texas, Massachusetts often among the highest) and states with much smaller average hikes (e.g., Maryland, Michigan, Oklahoma). State average increases ranged from ~20% to >60% depending on the study and the dollar threshold used. (insurancequotes.com)

Why do some states show much larger increases?

  • Regulatory limits on rating factors (if insurers can’t use things like credit or many demographic factors, they weight driving history more heavily). (insurancequotes.com)
  • No-fault systems can increase the frequency of claims paid through your policy and raise premium sensitivity. (consumerwatchdog.org)
  • High medical claim severity in some states raises bodily-injury exposures and pushes surcharges higher. (bankrate.com)

Example: California vs. Maryland (illustrative)

  • California: some studies show average post-claim increases among the highest (60%+ for a $2,000+ claim in some analyses) because regulatory factors limit insurers’ use of non-driving variables, increasing the weight of driving incidents. (insurancequotes.com)
  • Maryland: studies sometimes show lower average increases (~21% in one dataset) because insurers have more rating levers (credit, other non-driving variables) to spread risk and price without concentrated driving penalties. (moneytalksnews.com)

If you want to dive deeper into which states are most/least claim-friendly and see dollar examples, read: How a car insurance claim affects your premium: state-by-state cost increases and real dollar examples.

5. Insurer differences: some companies hit you harder than others

Insurer algorithms vary. A few patterns seen across price surveys:

  • Some national direct writers (in certain markets) show higher average surcharges after an at-fault claim than others. For example, company-level analyses have shown variation where one carrier raises by ~61% for a typical at-fault claim while another increases ~23% for comparable profiles. (autoinsurance.com)
  • Some carriers will not surcharge for a not-at-fault collision, others will — and the difference is sometimes dramatic. Consumer tests have shown major carriers behave differently by city and state. (claimsjournal.com)

If you’re shopping after a claim, consider the analysis at: Insurer ranking: which carriers raise premiums the least after a claim (useful for switching insurers).

Practical tip: get multiple quotes after a claim — a carrier that penalizes you heavily in one state or city might be much more forgiving elsewhere.

6. Real dollar examples and a quick calculation method

How to estimate your likely increase in 3 steps:

  1. Start with your current annual premium (or a comparable market baseline). Example: $1,800/year full coverage.
  2. Choose a percent increase consistent with claim type & state. (Use the tables above; e.g., at-fault collision in a high-surcharge state = 45%.) (bankrate.com)
  3. Multiply: New premium = Base premium × (1 + % increase).

Example scenarios (rounded):

  • At-fault minor collision in average market (40%): $1,800 × 1.40 = $2,520 → +$720/year. (bankrate.com)
  • Not-at-fault claim in a market with small surcharge (5%): $1,800 × 1.05 = $1,890 → +$90/year. (cbsnews.com)
  • At-fault with bodily injury (severe, high medical payouts) in high-severity state (75%): $1,800 × 1.75 = $3,150 → +$1,350/year. (bankrate.com)

Want a quicker tool? See: Accident claim cost calculator: estimate your premium increase and long-term ownership expense.

7. How long will the increase last? (lookback periods, CLUE, and state limits)

Typical time windows:

  • 3 years is a common penalty period many insurers use for ordinary at-fault collisions. 3–5 years is the typical range for most events. (thezebra.com)
  • CLUE (Comprehensive Loss Underwriting Exchange) records claims for up to 7 years, so insurers can see claims in that window even if the insurer’s surcharge policy is shorter. (insurify.com)
  • Some serious violations (DUI/DWI) carry much longer visibility and market consequences; state laws and insurer rules may extend penalties. (nerdwallet.com)

What this means:

  • Even after premiums come down, the claim data can be accessible to future insurers for years — but not all insurers will price you the same way for older claims. Shop after the penalty window expires. (insurify.com)

For details on how many years a claim will affect pricing in specific states, see: How many points is a claim worth? State-specific examples of claims, surcharges and monthly cost changes.

8. Should I file the claim or pay out of pocket? The 3–5 year ownership cost comparison

Filing vs. paying out-of-pocket requires comparing:

  • Immediate repair bill + deductible (if you file), versus
  • Higher premiums over 3–5 years if you file (plus potential deductible).

Rule of thumb:

  • If the repair cost is only slightly above your deductible, and the likely premium increase (present value over 3–5 years) is larger than the repair, paying out-of-pocket can be cheaper long-run. Conversely, for major damage or injury claims, filing is clearly the right choice. (autoinsurance.com)

Example quick math:

  • Repair cost: $2,000; deductible: $500 → insurer pays $1,500 if you file. If filing causes a +$600/year increase for 3 years = +$1,800 total → net cost of filing (deductible + increased premiums) = $500 + $1,800 = $2,300 (worse than OOP).
  • Always account for potential increases in later years and the non-financial benefit of having damage properly documented and repaired.

Deep-dive resource: Cost comparisons: filing small claims vs paying out-of-pocket — which saves money over 3–5 years?.

9. How deductible and claim history combine to affect premium costs

Higher deductible = lower premium base rate, but a claim makes you pay that larger deductible up front. If you raise your deductible to save on premium, but then file a claim, the deductible cost might negate the savings, depending on frequency of claims.

Practical optimization steps:

  • For drivers with rare claims, increasing deductible (e.g., from $500 to $1,000) often reduces long-term cost.
  • For drivers who expect claims (e.g., high-mileage, urban), a lower deductible could protect against spike + out-of-pocket surprise.
  • Combine deductible strategy with shopping and carrier selection — some carriers’ post-claim surcharges are more or less sensitive to deductible levels. (autoinsurance.com)

Related reading: How deductible and claim history combine to affect premium costs — optimize for lowest total ownership expense.

10. Actions to reduce or avoid rate shock after a claim (expert tactics)

Short-term and long-term tactics that often help:

  • Before filing, evaluate whether to pay out-of-pocket for small damage (weigh repair cost vs. expected 3–5 year premium increase). Use a calculator or the examples above. (autoinsurance.com)
  • Shop carriers at renewal — different insurers price prior claims differently; you may get a materially lower quote elsewhere. (autoinsurance.com)
  • Ask about and enroll in accident forgiveness before you need it (most carriers require a clean history to qualify). Accident forgiveness prevents a first at-fault accident from raising your rates with that insurer. (thezebra.com)
  • Complete defensive driving courses if your state and insurer offer discounts for completion. (nerdwallet.com)
  • Increase deductible only after modeling expected savings vs. out-of-pocket risk. (autoinsurance.com)
  • If you’re hit by an uninsured driver, exhaust the at-fault carrier route first (their insurer should pay) — avoid filing on your own policy if possible. (compare.com)
  • Consider coverage riders or optional features (glass coverage or “waiver of restoration premium” options exist in some products) that reduce surcharge risk — these can cost more upfront but save after a claim. (investopedia.com)

For a full playbook: Minimize premium impact after a claim: policy choices and tactics that reduce long-term car insurance cost.

11. Special cases and red flags

  • DUI / reckless driving / hit-and-run: these generate the largest, longest-lasting penalties and may require SR-22 filings or force placement into high-risk markets. Expect severe price increases and limited carrier options. (nerdwallet.com)
  • Multiple claims in short windows: two or more claims in 12–36 months often moves drivers into nonstandard or assigned-risk pools, where premiums can rise dramatically. (insurance-forums.com)
  • Medical-cost shock: rising medical and bodily-injury claim severity in several states is pushing up surcharges tied to BI payouts. If your claim involves injuries, expect higher surcharges than bumper/paint repairs. (bankrate.com)

12. What to do immediately after an incident (practical checklist)

  1. Ensure safety and call emergency services if needed.
  2. Document everything: photos, contact and insurance info from other parties, police report. A clear record helps prove non-fault and may prevent surcharges.
  3. Get repair estimates and talk to your agent before automatically filing if damage is minor — compare OOP vs. filing. (compare.com)
  4. If you do file, file accurately and promptly; delay can complicate claims and coverage.
  5. After settlement, shop and compare quotes at renewal — many drivers save materially by switching carriers after a claim. (autoinsurance.com)

13. Frequently asked questions (short answers)

Q: Will a small glass (windshield) claim raise my rate?
A: Often no or very little. Many insurers and states treat glass claims leniently to encourage safe repair/replacement. Always check your policy and whether glass repair is a no-deduct option. (compare.com)

Q: If I’m not at fault, will my rate definitely not go up?
A: Not guaranteed. Many insurers do not surcharge for not-at-fault incidents, but some do depending on state and carrier. Consumer studies have found not-at-fault surcharges in several large insurers in certain locales. (cbsnews.com)

Q: How long do higher rates last after an at-fault claim?
A: Typically 3–5 years; CLUE records last up to 7 years. Severity and state rules can extend effects. (thezebra.com)

14. Next steps: tools and further reading

15. Bottom line (what to expect and how to protect your wallet)

  • Expect a material premium increase after a verified at-fault claim: plan for a realistic increase in the tens to hundreds of dollars per year, often lasting 3–5 years. (bankrate.com)
  • Not-at-fault claims are less certain: many drivers see little or no increase, but some insurers and states do add surcharges — always document fault and explore third-party coverage first. (cbsnews.com)
  • State and insurer selection matter a lot. If you’re worried about post-claim pricing, shop multiple carriers at renewal and consider higher deductibles, accident forgiveness options, or paying small repairs out-of-pocket when appropriate. (autoinsurance.com)

If you’d like, I can:

  • Walk through a personalized example using your current annual premium, state, claim type, and deductible to estimate a likely 3- and 5-year cost; or
  • Generate a side-by-side comparison of a shortlist of insurers in your state (to show which carriers historically penalize claims less).

Which would you prefer — a personalized cost example, or a carrier comparison for your state?

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