Loss History and Claims Frequency: What Underwriters Look for When Quoting Trucking Insurance

Underwriters price trucking insurance by assessing both entity-level exposures (the fleet, the carrier, the business model) and risk-level signals (driver performance, vehicle exposure, routes, cargo). Loss history and claims frequency are two of the most influential indicators underwriters use to predict future cost and to set premium, retention, limits and conditions. This article explains what underwriters look for, how loss metrics drive pricing in key U.S. markets (California, Texas, New Jersey/New York ports, Chicago), and practical steps fleets can take to lower underwriting risk.

Why loss history and claims frequency matter

Underwriters use historical losses to estimate expected future loss costs. Loss history shows not only dollar severity but also the patterns that predict recurrence:

• Claims frequency (claims per million miles, per truck-year, or per exposure) signals systemic operational or safety issues.
• Severity (average paid per claim) signals catastrophic exposure — e.g., high-cost liability for interstate hazmat or multivehicle crashes.
• Claim typology (preventable vs non-preventable, cargo vs liability vs physical damage) guides coverage tailoring and exclusions.
• Recency and trend — a single large loss five years ago is less penalized than multiple small claims in the past 12–24 months.

Regulatory minimums establish baseline exposure: the FMCSA requires minimum liability limits (commonly $750,000 for general freight up to $1M–$5M for higher-risk operations such as oil field, certain passenger carriers or hazardous materials) which influence underwriting appetite and premium layers. (See FMCSA insurance requirements.)
Source: FMCSA — Insurance Requirements: https://www.fmcsa.dot.gov/registration/insurance-requirements

Key loss-history metrics underwriters evaluate

Underwriters typically analyze these metrics, often normalized per million miles or per truck-year:

• Claims Frequency: Number of claims per million vehicle miles traveled (VMT) or per truck-year.
• Loss Ratio: Paid losses + case reserves divided by paid premiums (carrier/fleet level and policy-level).
• Severity: Average incurred paid per claim, and distribution of losses (how many catastrophic claims).
• Open/Closed Claims Mix: Large open reserves are weighted heavily.
• Litigation Rate: Percentage of claims that become litigated increases future severity.
• Recency/Trend: Year-over-year change, especially in last 12–24 months.
• Cause Codes: Rear-end, jackknife, backing incidents, loading/unloading losses — these suggest fixable operational issues.

How claims frequency drives premium: underwriting logic

Underwriters convert loss signals into premium changes via four levers:

1. Rate per exposure — higher claims frequency increases the rate per truck, per million miles, or per payroll.
2. Retention (deductible) — carriers with frequent small claims are often required to accept higher deductibles.
3. Coverage limits and exclusions — frequent cargo or cross-border claims can trigger restricted geographic coverage or higher cargo deductibles.
4. Capacity and market — frequent losses push accounts into specialty markets (e.g., Great West Casualty, Sentry, or Excess/Surplus lines) with higher pricing or limited capacity.

Illustrative underwriting guidance: a fleet with claims frequency above industry benchmark (for many US long-haul fleets this is roughly 1.0–2.0 claims per million miles for preventable claims; exact benchmarks vary by vehicle class and operation) will typically see premium increases of 15–50% or more, higher deductibles, or both. The exact figures depend on severity, market conditions, and geographic concentration.

Regional examples: how location shifts underwriting outcomes

Loss history effects vary by market:

• California (Los Angeles / Inland Empire / Bay Area): High congestion, port exposure (LA/LB), and theft risk increase both frequency and severity. Expect higher rates and stricter underwriting for cargo and primary liability.
• Texas (Houston / Dallas): Long-distance routes with oil & gas lanes and hurricane-related exposures lead to variable severity; claims frequency tied to driver fatigue on long runs.
• New Jersey / New York (Port Newark / NY metro): Port terminal risk, tight urban operations, and severe liability exposure boost both premiums and reserves.
• Chicago / I-80 corridor: High traffic corridors with seasonal severe weather; underwriters watch winter-weather-related loss spikes.

These regional differences mean similar loss histories can produce different premium outcomes depending on geography and lane risk.

Example market ranges (typical U.S. market estimates)

Below are market-range examples for annual commercial truck insurance costs by operation type and region. These are illustrative ranges drawn from market brokers and carrier guidance; actual quotes depend on loss history, vehicle mix, and limits. Sources such as brokerage cost guides and industry analyses report wide variability driven by claims performance and geography. (Examples reflect 2023–2025 market dynamics.)

For context on how insurance contributes to operating cost and why underwriting is tight, see industry research such as the American Transportation Research Institute and market broker guides (see references below). Source examples: Insureon truck insurance cost guidance: https://www.insureon.com/small-business-insurance/truck-driver-insurance/cost and ATRI research: https://truckingresearch.org/

What specific companies look for

Market leaders such as Progressive Commercial, Great West Casualty, Travelers, and specialty markets within Berkshire Hathaway and others each have underwriting thresholds, but they commonly review:

• MVRs, CSA snapshots, DOT reportable crash history per driver and per power unit.
• Loss runs for the last 3–5 years showing frequency, severity and trends.
• Preventable vs non-preventable split and type of loss (e.g., cargo theft vs collision).
• Safety programs: documented training, pre-trip inspections, fatigue management, hiring practices.
• Telematics and video evidence programs — carriers with integrated telematics typically receive better pricing.
• Third-party audits or safety scores (including the predictive use of roadside inspection results).

Progressive and similar national writers will quote aggressively for fleets with clean and improving loss runs, whereas carriers with spotty histories are often pushed to regional specialists (e.g., Great West) or Excess & Surplus lines.

Underwriting red flags tied to claims frequency

Underwriters will flag accounts for:

• Multiple small frequent claims over 12–24 months (indicates operational or supervision deficiency).
• Recent catastrophic liability losses or large jury verdicts.
• High percent of claims that are litigated or have rising defense costs.
• Unexplained reserves or open large claims in recent loss runs.
• Lack of corrective action plans after loss patterns emerge.

For more detailed red flags and how to correct them see: Rater Red Flags: Common Underwriting Issues That Cause Higher Trucking Insurance Premiums.

How fleets can reduce claims frequency and win better pricing

Underwriters reward demonstrable loss control. High-impact actions include:

• Implementing a formal safety management system (SMS) with written policies.
• Using telematics and driver- and event-based video to coach and discipline drivers.
• Raising deductibles for small frequent claims while self-insuring minor damage (if financially viable).
• Targeting hiring and onboarding quality: thorough MVR checks, prior employer verification.
• Conducting root-cause analysis and corrective action plans for repeating claim types (backing, cargo loss, unsecured loads).
• Geographic lane management: avoid or reprice high-risk lanes or obtain additional risk transfer.
• Investing in regular driver training and fatigue management.

For actionable program elements that reduce underwriting scores, see: How Telematics, Safety Programs and Training Lower Underwriting Scores and Premiums.

Practical checklist for submission to underwriters

When preparing to quote, include:

• Complete 3–5 years of loss runs (paid, reserves, open/closed breakdowns).
• Miles by state and by lane for the last 12 months.
• Driver roster with MVR/CVM snapshots and CSA summaries.
• Safety policies, training logs, telematics scorecards and corrective-action documentation.
• Description of any recent operational changes (new safety director, telematics rollout, route changes).

For additional pricing drivers and fleet attributes read: Fleet Characteristics That Affect Trucking Insurance Rates: Age, Size and Vehicle Mix.

Final notes on market trends and where to look for quotes

Market conditions remain dynamic: insurers continue to adjust pricing in response to inflation in repair/labor costs, rising jury verdicts and changing loss trends. Brokers and carriers (Progressive, Great West, Travelers, specialty E&S underwriters) will require robust documentation to earn competitive pricing, especially in high-cost regions such as Los Angeles/Long Beach, Northern New Jersey/New York, and Houston.

Useful external sources:

• FMCSA insurance requirements (federal minimums and conditions): https://www.fmcsa.dot.gov/registration/insurance-requirements
• Insureon trucking insurance cost guidance (broker market ranges): https://www.insureon.com/small-business-insurance/truck-driver-insurance/cost
• American Transportation Research Institute — research on trucking costs and operational drivers: https://truckingresearch.org/

For a deeper dive into how underwriters convert metrics into rate sheets and risk tiers, see: How Underwriters Price Trucking and Logistics Insurance: Key Metrics That Drive Premiums.