Compare post-claim rate shock: top insurers’ average premium increases after at-fault, not-at-fault and glass claims

Content pillar: Cost Impact of Claims on Premiums & Rate Comparisons
Market focus: United States — national and state-level context, insurer comparisons, actionable advice.

Table of contents

Executive summary: quick takeaways
How insurers price post-claim risk (why your premium changes)
Methodology: how these comparisons were built
Headline numbers: national averages and insurer ranges
Carrier-by-carrier comparison (top insurers)
Not-at-fault claims: typical impact and exceptions
Glass (windshield) claims: how they usually behave
State-level variation and why it matters
How long increases last (lookback periods, CLUE, DMV)
Real-dollar scenarios and 3–5 year cost comparisons
Should you file a small claim? Decision framework
How to reduce the premium impact: policy choices and tactics
Best insurers and switching strategy after a claim
Practical checklist after a claim (what to do immediately)
Frequently asked questions
Bottom line and recommended next steps

Table of Contents

Executive summary: quick takeaways

After an at-fault accident, most drivers see meaningful premium jumps — typically in the 30–70% range in year one depending on carrier, state, and severity; some carriers show higher or lower averages. (forbes.com)
Not-at-fault accidents often cause little to no increase, but some insurers and states may still apply a small surcharge; verify with your insurer. (nerdwallet.com)
Glass-only (windshield) claims usually have minimal impact on premiums — many insurers treat them as comprehensive/no-fault and either don’t surcharge or the increase is small; state rules (and abuse/fraud trends) matter. (insurify.com)
The duration of rate effects is typically 3–5 years for insurer surcharges, while CLUE (central claims history) keeps records for 7 years and DMV records vary by state. (autvex.com)
Because carrier responses differ significantly, shopping after a claim and using strategy (raising deductible, accident forgiveness, bundling, or switching) can recoup most of the added cost. (nerdwallet.com)

How insurers price post-claim risk (why your premium changes)

Insurance pricing is actuarial: insurers use historical claims data and predictive models to estimate a driver’s expected future losses. Key inputs that affect post-claim rating:

Fault: at-fault accidents indicate driver behavior and predict higher future loss frequency/severity.
Severity/payout: large payouts (injury, total loss) push bigger surcharges than minor property damage.
Frequency: multiple small claims in a short window often increase premiums more than a single larger claim.
Claim type: comprehensive claims (theft, vandalism, glass, weather) are treated differently from collision/at-fault crashes because they reflect environmental exposure, not driving choices.
State regulation: some states limit surcharges for not-at-fault incidents or glass claims; others allow full actuarial adjustments.
Company underwriting: each insurer has proprietary models and lookback windows; the same incident can move pricing very differently across carriers. (carinsurance.com)

Why glass claims are different: glass/windshield damage often results from debris, weather, or vandalism. Because these events aren’t tightly correlated to the driver’s skill, many insurers either don’t surcharge for a single glass claim or treat it as a much smaller rating factor than an at-fault collision. State laws (for example, policies allowing $0 windshield deductibles) and local fraud patterns can change that practice. (insurify.com)

Methodology — how this guide was built (and limitations)

This article synthesizes insurer-level and state-level analyses published by market research and consumer sites that use proprietary rate modeling (Quadrant/industry datasets) and wide ZIP-code sampling to estimate average premiums before and after claims. Primary sources used in the comparisons below include industry analyses by Forbes Advisor (Quadrant data), Bankrate, NerdWallet and specialized insurers/market platforms. Where numbers vary by publication, I present ranges and explain why differences exist (sample population, coverage assumptions, and lookback windows). (forbes.com)

Important caveats:

Numbers are averages — your change may be substantially higher or lower based on age, vehicle, coverage, driving history, credit score (where allowed), and exact fault ruling.
Sources use different baseline profiles (age/zip/deductible), so the percent or dollar changes should be treated as directional and comparative rather than an exact prediction for any single driver.
Regulations, insurer programs (accident forgiveness), promotions, claim volume and fraud trends change over time; always verify current policy details with carriers. (carinsurance.com)

Headline numbers: national averages and insurer ranges

Below are representative national findings from recent industry analyses (sampled and published across multiple outlets). Use these as benchmarks — expect local and personal variance.

Typical national average increase after one at-fault accident: roughly ~40–60% (many analyses cluster in this band; some carriers show ~20% while others approach or exceed 70–80% in published samples). (carinsurance.com)
Typical national average increase after a not-at-fault accident: 0–15% on average — often zero with carrier-level exceptions where administrative surcharges or rating triggers apply. (nerdwallet.com)
Typical national average change after a glass-only claim: minimal to none; many drivers see no meaningful premium increase, though repeated glass claims or fraud-prone jurisdictions can produce increases. (insurify.com)

Why numbers span widely: different companies’ portfolios and quoting methodologies produce variation. For example, Forbes Advisor (Quadrant) found per-carrier differences where GEICO and Progressive sometimes show larger percentage increases in their samples, while State Farm and USAA often reported smaller increases in average-dollar terms in the same analysis. (forbes.com)

Carrier-by-carrier comparison: what published analyses report

The table below summarizes sample "before" and "after" averages that national consumer sites published for major carriers (figures are example averages from published market studies; they illustrate relative carrier behavior rather than a guaranteed quote).

Carrier	Sample avg annual premium (clean record)	Sample avg annual premium (after 1 at-fault)	Approx. % increase (typical published range)
State Farm	$1,400–$2,700	$1,700–$3,400	~20–30% (lower side in many studies). (forbes.com)
GEICO	$1,100–$2,200	$2,000–$3,900	~50–80% (published samples show large jumps in some analyses). (forbes.com)
Progressive	$1,800–$2,200	$2,900–$3,400	~40–60%. (forbes.com)
Allstate	$2,000–$3,300	$3,000–$5,300	~45–70% (varies by sample). (forbes.com)
USAA*	$1,100–$2,200	$1,600–$3,200	~35–50% (often low base rates; available to military only). (forbes.com)
Farmers	$2,100–$3,900	$3,000–$5,100	~40–65% in published samples. (forbes.com)
Nationwide	$1,500–$2,800	$2,360–$4,100	~45–60%. (forbes.com)
Travelers / Erie / AAA	Varied (often mid-market)	Moderate increases (20–50%)	Varies by state and profile. (bankrate.com)

*Sources: sample rate studies by Quadrant / Forbes Advisor, Bankrate, NerdWallet and other market aggregators; numbers represent typical published ranges rather than live quotes. (forbes.com)

Notes:

These studies typically assume full-coverage profiles (collision + comp) and a middle-age driver; your mileage will vary.
Percent increases are larger when the pre-accident premium is low (small-dollar increases translate to large percentages) and vice-versa. (carinsurance.com)

Not-at-fault claims: typical impact and important exceptions

General rule:

If you’re clearly not at fault (other driver accepted fault or insurer judicially finds them responsible), many insurers do not surcharge — your premium may remain the same. However, a small share of carriers or states allow modest increases or administrative charges. (nerdwallet.com)

Why you still might see a change:

Early quoting cycles: some insurers reprice based on frequency and exposure and may not fully adjust for subrogation recovery at renewal time.
Multiple not-at-fault incidents: repeated involvement in accidents (even if not your fault) can be treated as higher exposure by some models.
State rules: some regulators forbid surcharging for not-at-fault events; others don’t. Example: in a few states insurers can only surcharge if the at-fault driver is uninsured or the claim isn’t subrogated. (insure.com)

Practical tip: insist on documenting fault (police reports, photos, witness statements) and follow up on subrogation — a timely $0 payout on your CLUE record can reduce insurer inclination to surcharge.

Glass (windshield) claims: how they usually behave

What the data and carrier policy notes show:

Single glass-only claims typically have little or no premium impact for most carriers — insurers often treat glass as comprehensive/no-fault because causes are environmental. (insurify.com)
Multiple glass claims in a short period, or glass claims that accompany collision damage, are more likely to trigger an underwriting review or a small surcharge. (insurify.com)
State differences: Some states (and some carriers within states) subsidize or require $0 deductible windshield repairs/replacements; others don’t. Example: after reforms to curb assignment-of-benefits fraud, Florida saw major changes in windshield claim volumes and insurer responses. (carinsurance.com)

Why glass claims are often low-impact:

They don’t predict driver behavior in the same way collisions do.
Repair costs are often low relative to collision payouts, and many shops repair (not replace) small chips for <$100.

When a glass claim might increase rates:

If the glass claim is bundled with a collision (e.g., windshield broken in an at-fault crash).
If the claim points to potential fraud (e.g., shop files frequent AOB-based claims).
If your insurer has specific rating rules tied to claim frequency. (insurancecurator.com)

State-level variation: where filing a claim costs you more (and less)

State regulations, claim frequency, and local market competition produce notable differences:

Some states show very large average hikes after an at-fault accident (published samples put California, New Jersey, Texas and Pennsylvania among higher-increase states in some analyses). (carinsurance.com)
Other states (Vermont, Hawaii, Maine, Rhode Island in some samples) show more moderate increases after a single accident. (insure.com)

Why this matters:

Insurer pricing reflects local litigation trends, repair costs, medical cost inflation, fraud patterns, and regulatory constraints. If you move or shop in a different state, the same at-fault accident can produce different renewal outcomes. (carinsurance.com)

Want a state-by-state deep dive? See our companion: How a car insurance claim affects your premium: state-by-state cost increases and real dollar examples.

How long increases last (lookback periods, CLUE and DMV records)

Three different records matter, and they have different retention windows:

Insurance company surcharges / internal rating windows: typically 3–5 years for surcharge application; many insurers start removing accident charge after 3 years for minor collisions but may keep longer for severe events. (autvex.com)
CLUE (Comprehensive Loss Underwriting Exchange): claims are visible to insurers for 7 years — important when shopping carriers, because a forgiven accident at your current company still appears to new carriers. (autvex.com)
DMV / Motor Vehicle Records (MVR): state-dependent — 3–10+ years depending on the state and offense severity; license points and suspensions are governed here. (autvex.com)

Practical implications:

Your current insurer’s accident forgiveness or decision to not surcharge may not prevent a new company from quoting you higher because CLUE will show the claim. Always check how a prospective carrier treats prior claims. (autvex.com)

Real-dollar scenarios: sample calculations (3-year and 5-year cost comparison)

Below are concise examples to illustrate how much a single claim can cost over several years. These hypothetical scenarios use rounded figures for clarity.

Scenario A — moderate-priced driver (pre-claim premium = $1,200/year)

After an at-fault accident: assume a 40% increase → new premium = $1,680/year (+$480 annually).
Over 3 years (if surcharge persists): extra = $480 × 3 = $1,440 (plus renewal-year compounding).
Over 5 years (assuming decline after year 3): extra ≈ $480×3 + $240×2 = $1,920.

Scenario B — low-base-rate driver (pre-claim premium = $800/year) with a carrier that applies an 80% jump (worst-case sample)

After an at-fault accident: new premium = $1,440/year (+$640 annually).
3-year extra = $1,920; 5-year extra (declining) ≈ $2,560.

Scenario C — glass-only claim for a driver paying $1,200/year, insurer adds $0–50 annually

One-time $0–$50 increase: over 3 years = $0–$150 (often $0). This is typically far cheaper than paying a large deductible or out-of-pocket collision repair. (carinsurance.com)

Use these sample calculators to estimate your own cost: Accident claim cost calculator: estimate your premium increase and long-term ownership expense.

Should you file a small claim? Decision matrix (3–5 year cost comparison)

Filing a small claim can be tempting, but long-term costs often exceed the immediate payout. Use this quick decision framework:

Estimate short-term payout: claim value − deductible = immediate benefit.
Estimate long-term surcharge: use your insurer’s typical % increase × current premium × lookback years (3–5).
Compare: if long-term surcharge > immediate benefit, consider paying out-of-pocket.
Also consider non-financial factors: is the vehicle required for work? Is repair safety-critical? Will repairs be documented for resale and warranty reasons? (bankrate.com)

We explore this deeply in: Cost comparisons: filing small claims vs paying out-of-pocket — which saves money over 3–5 years?.

How to reduce premium impact after a claim — policy choices and tactics

Expert tactics that meaningfully reduce post-claim cost:

Increase deductible (before a claim occurs): a higher deductible reduces premium and makes small claims less attractive to file. See: How deductible and claim history combine to affect premium costs — optimize for lowest total ownership expense. (bankrate.com)
Accident forgiveness: ask your insurer if you qualify or can buy it as an endorsement; evaluate cost vs expected surcharge savings. (autvex.com)
Glass waiver / $0 deductible for windshield: many insurers offer this add-on — it preserves your no-claim status for glass events. This is often inexpensive and can avoid a claim. (insurify.com)
Defensive driving courses: some states and carriers offer rate discounts after completion. (autvex.com)
Bundle policies and loyalty discounts: bundling home and auto often lowers net renewal increases. (nerdwallet.com)
Shop after the first renewal post-claim: rivals often offer better post-claim pricing; make sure you understand CLUE history. See: Insurer ranking: which carriers raise premiums the least after a claim (useful for switching insurers). (nerdwallet.com)

For a deeper tactical playbook: Minimize premium impact after a claim: policy choices and tactics that reduce long-term car insurance cost.

Which insurers raise the least after a claim? (and how to use that knowledge)

Published analyses show no single carrier is always best; the “least increase” carrier depends on profile and geography. However:

State Farm and some regional mutuals often appear lower in percent increase in certain samples (they price conservative portfolios). (forbes.com)
GEICO and Progressive show larger relative percent increases in some national samples; this is partly because their base rates are low and percentage changes magnify. (forbes.com)
USAA often remains low even post-claim for eligible members, but availability is limited. (nerdwallet.com)

Action steps:

After a claim, get quotes from at least 3–4 carriers and ask for explicit treatment of prior claims. Don’t rely on an automated online quote alone — ask underwriters or agents about how they handle recent claims. (nerdwallet.com)

Practical checklist: what to do immediately after a claim to reduce long-term cost

Document fault clearly: photos, police report, witness contact info. This helps ensure correct not-at-fault coding and supports subrogation.
Ask your adjuster whether the claim will be coded as at-fault, not-at-fault, or a subrogation/zero-dollar payout — get it in writing.
If possible and safe, gather repair estimates so you can assess whether to file (consider deductible vs repair cost).
Confirm whether glass repairs can be handled outside of claims (many shops offer repair for small chips cheaply).
Ask your insurer about accident forgiveness and whether it applies. If not available, ask about a glass waiver or deductible reimbursement options.
Get CLUE report (LexisNexis) after claim closure to verify how it appears; dispute errors. (autvex.com)

Frequently asked questions

Q: Will a single minor fender-bender ruin my credit or insurance prospects?
A: No — a single minor at-fault accident typically raises premiums for 3–5 years. It’s visible on CLUE for 7 years, and the surcharge usually declines each year. Shopping carriers and using tactics like accident forgiveness can reduce long-term pain. (autvex.com)

Q: Will my rates go up if I’m not at fault?
A: Usually not, but check state rules and insurer practice — some companies may still apply administrative rating actions in certain circumstances. See: Will my rates go up? Quantifying insurance premium hikes after a claim (by claim type and state). (nerdwallet.com)

Q: Is it better to pay a $500 repair out of pocket or file a claim?
A: Often better to pay out-of-pocket for small repairs because the long-term surcharge can exceed the claim benefit. Use the 3–5 year decision matrix above and the linked cost comparison resource. (bankrate.com)

Q: Does windshield replacement always avoid surcharges?
A: Not always — most carriers treat isolated glass claims as low-risk and won’t surcharge, but repeated glass claims, bundled claims, or claims in fraud-prone states could trigger higher scrutiny. (insurify.com)

Bottom line — prioritized action plan

If you had an at-fault accident: prepare for a material renewal increase; get multiple quotes at renewal and evaluate accident forgiveness or switching options. (nerdwallet.com)
If you were not at fault: document thoroughly and confirm subrogation; most drivers will avoid surcharges but confirm with the insurer. (nerdwallet.com)
For glass claims: consider repair (not replacement) where appropriate, use a $0-deductible glass waiver if available, and expect minimal impact for a single claim. (insurify.com)
For small claims: run the 3–5 year math — immediate payout vs. long-term surcharge — before filing. See: Cost comparisons: filing small claims vs paying out-of-pocket — which saves money over 3–5 years?. (bankrate.com)

If you want, I can:

Run a tailored scenario using your current premium, deductible and state to estimate the likely post-claim premium trajectory over 3–5 years; or
Pull the latest published carrier comparison for your state and suggest target carriers to quote after a specific claim.

Suggested next reads (quick links from this cluster)

Sources and further reading (selected)

Forbes Advisor — carrier-level analysis (Quadrant data). (forbes.com)
Bankrate — insurer samples and comparison tables. (bankrate.com)
NerdWallet — company and state breakdowns after an at-fault accident. (nerdwallet.com)
CarInsurance.com / Insure.com — state-by-state average studies and trends. (carinsurance.com)
Insurify / Insurance Curator coverage notes on windshield claims. (insurify.com)
Analysis on lookback windows, CLUE and surcharging timelines. (autvex.com)

If you’d like, provide your state, insurer, current annual premium and deductible and I’ll run a 3–5 year post-claim cost projection and list 3 insurers that historically quote competitively for drivers with a claim in your state.